Capacity Tracker

Summary

Europe's ammonia capacity in CCM Intel's tracker fell from 2,970 kt to 2,070 kt in 2024 (-30.3%) and is forecast flat through 2030. North America shows no tracked capacity until a 1,400 kt addition in 2029, which would bring it to parity with roughly two-thirds of Europe's 2030 level.

Key Highlights

›Europe peak-to-current: Capacity rose 10% from 2,700 kt (2016–2018) to 2,970 kt in 2019, then held flat through 2023.

›2024 rationalization: A 900 kt cut (-30.3%) reduced capacity to 2,070 kt, which holds through 2026 and the forecast period.

›Long-run Europe trend: 2016–2030 CAGR is about -1.9% (2,700 kt to 2,070 kt), a net loss of 630 kt (-23.3%).

›North America: Tracked capacity is 0 kt from 2016 to 2028, then steps up to 1,400 kt in 2029 and holds in 2030.

›2030 snapshot: Combined tracked capacity is 3,470 kt, with North America at about 40% of the total and Europe at about 60%.

Drivers & Risks

›Drivers: The 2029 North American addition likely reflects new-build, low-carbon ammonia projects supported by incentives and export demand. European capacity is stabilizing after restructuring.

›Risks: Project delays or cancellations could push the 2029 start-up out of the forecast window, given financing and offtake uncertainty. Europe's flat outlook leaves it exposed to high gas costs and carbon pricing, with potential for further closures.

›Data caveat: North America's zero baseline reflects the scope of the tracker, so comparisons to the broader regional market should be made with care.